After a rewarding love affair with
homeownership in the Seventies and Eighties, some people feel they've been
jilted in the Nineties. Those who bought at the top in California and the
Northeast suffered significant losses as prices tumbled. Even between the
coasts, values have dipped in spots because of recession.
But the world still favors the American dream - housing remains a good
investment. Not everywhere at every time. But in most places, most of the time.
An analysis by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University shows
that if you bought a house in 1983 and sold it in 1991, you would have enjoyed
real annual growth in equity of 4% to 22% in 10 of 12 markets studied. The big
exception was Houston, where homeowners lost 17% a year owing to the oil-price
collapse of the mid-1980's. Boston was a loser after 1987, down 2.5% annually.
That's the past, you say, when appreciation generally kept up with or beat
inflation. Fact is, even if the value of a home lags behind inflation by a
percentage point or two, leverage makes the equation work for most people: If
you put $20,000 down on a $100,000 house and the price rises 3%, that $3,000
capital gain translates into a 15% return on investment. It's really more
complicated because of such items as tax benefits and maintenance and selling
costs for the homeowner, and returns a renter could earn if he invested the
down-payment money. After taking all kinds of subtleties into account, the
number crunching still favors buying.
Real estate expert Anthony Downs of the Brookings Institution shows that a
homeowner's return on investment in the 1980's was high even in the Midwest,
where houses appreciated just 3.6% a year vs. inflation of 4.6%. A buy vs. rent
study of individual homes by Merrill Lynch finds that if appreciation lags
behind inflation by two percentage points, you still won't lose by buying. Says
economist Karl Case of Wellesley College, who closely follows housing prices and
investment decisions, "Housing almost always gives you a very good
return."
Making the Most Out of a $10,000 Investment
Often overlooked when comparing investment options are the leveraging and tax
advantage of purchasing a home. This hypothetical example in the chart below
analyzes those benefits over a 10-year period by comparing the experiences of
two households. One household used $10,000 in savings as a downpayment on a
home; the other buys a $10,000 Treasury bond and continues to rent. Looking at
the bottom line 10 years later, the homeowner out-earns the renter by more than
$49,000 on the initial $10,000 investment. Both households consist of a husband,
wife and one child. Each family has a combined income of $40,000 which increases
5 percent annually. The example assumes a property tax rate of 1 percent of
value each year, hazard insurance of .4% of value per year and a marginal tax
rate of 15%.
HOMEBUYER: 1994 - 2004
Household makes a $10,000 downpayment
Total PITI Payment over 10 Yrs.
$106,884
on a $100,000 home. Finances
$90,000
Tax Savings
$14,533
with a fixed rate loan at 9-1/4%
interest.
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Assumes a 5% annual appreciation in
value of home.